In 2022, as the COVID-19 pandemic subsided, short-term labor migration to OECD countries surged by 77% compared to the previous year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels (International Migration Outlook 2023). A significant share of these migrants are highly educated and skilled individuals, whose mobility is closely associated with substantial economic effects. The economic returns to education and skills have long been explained through human capital theory and endogenous growth models. The mechanisms through which mobility shapes economic outcomes were first theorized by Andrew Roy (1951) as the “self-selection hypothesis.” Since the 1980s, George Borjas has applied this framework to the study of migration and its economic consequences, while James Heckman further developed it to explain the relationship between education, ability, and occupational choice. With the rapid expansion of globalization in the 1990s, the rise in high-skilled migration prompted concerns over “brain drain,” highlighting potential losses and widening inequalities in sending countries. In the 2000s, however, OECD economists advanced the concept of “brain circulation,” suggesting that talent continuously moves across borders, with outflows compensated by inflows, thereby fostering knowledge diffusion and technological innovation.

These theoretical perspectives largely assume that education and mobility generate positive economic value, thereby supporting policies that attract international students and highly skilled workers. In contrast, alternative approaches emphasize the economic value of “non-mobility.” For instance, Oliver Williamson’s transaction cost theory highlights the efficiency of economic activities within culturally cohesive societies, while Robert Putnam’s social capital theory underscores the role of shared values and trust in facilitating cooperation and economic performance. Although such perspectives are sometimes criticized for their limited compatibility with diversity and innovation, recent political developments—including the rise of populism during the Trump administration and the strengthening of immigration restrictions in Europe—demonstrate that both mobility and its associated economic benefits can be contested.

Since their emergence in medieval Europe, universities have been fundamentally shaped by mobility. The tradition of peregrinatio academica exemplifies how scholars crossed geographical and political boundaries in pursuit of knowledge, forming the very foundation of academic institutions. In the contemporary era, however, the mobility of highly skilled individuals—often originating from universities—generates not only scientific and technological advancement but also new forms of inequality and social tension. Against this backdrop, there is a pressing need to systematically examine the patterns of high-skilled mobility, assess both its positive and negative economic impacts, and develop analytical frameworks capable of informing future trajectories.

The Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) project conducted between 2020 and 2025, titled “Global Mobility of the Highly Skilled: Their Pathway, Economic Impact, and Higher Education Funding,” identified several notable patterns among Asian Ph.D. holders who obtained their degrees in the United States and remained employed there for more than seven years. These individuals were more likely to originate from India or China, to be female, to specialize in engineering, and to have received university-based financial support. Their sustained employment trajectories suggest that they have made significant contributions to technological advancement and economic development in the United States. At the same time, the rising wage premium for doctoral degree holders in the U.S. raises concerns about widening inequality—both within the United States and between destination and origin countries—based on educational attainment. These findings indicate that high-skilled mobility is shaped by a complex interplay of endogenous choices—such as decisions regarding mobility, education, and career pathways—and exogenous factors, including individual attributes as well as institutional and policy environments shaped by universities and nation-states.

Building on these insights, the present project seeks to systematically collect both endogenous and exogenous determinants of mobility, while introducing new productivity indicators based on academic, technological, and commercial achievements. Furthermore, the scope of analysis will be expanded from a single-country focus on the United States to a comparative framework encompassing four countries, including Japan, in order to enhance both cross-national comparability and the broader applicability of the findings.

To address the research questions outlined above, this project undertakes a comprehensive analysis of high-skilled mobility by examining its empirical patterns, productivity outcomes based on employment trajectories and individual achievements, and the institutional and national contexts in which such mobility unfolds. By analyzing the interrelationships among these dimensions, the project aims to identify the economic impacts of high-skilled mobility and to develop an explanatory model capable of informing future projections. The research is structured into the following four components:

By synthesizing these components, the project identifies the dynamic interactions among universities, national systems, and individual mobility pathways, and examines how these interactions generate both individual productivity and aggregate economic outcomes, including their distributional effects. The findings are interpreted through multiple theoretical lenses—including human capital theory, higher education studies, economies of scale, international relations, migration theory, and social capital theory—while also reassessing and refining existing frameworks to enhance their explanatory power. Ultimately, the project aims to contribute to evidence-based international policy discussions in areas such as student mobility, science and technology policy, and higher education.

To successfully advance this ambitious research agenda, the project brings together leading scholars from across multiple disciplines. In addition to specialists in education, the team includes prominent researchers in public economics, inequality studies, and international sociology, representing some of Japan’s foremost academic institutions. By integrating diverse perspectives, this project constitutes a distinctive interdisciplinary endeavor that addresses the complex relationships among education, mobility, economic growth, and inequality—an issue of critical importance that transcends conventional disciplinary boundaries.

To achieve its objective of comprehensively analyzing (1) mobility patterns, (2) productivity and its determinants, (3) the characteristics of universities attended, and (4) the characteristics of countries of origin as well as countries of study and employment, this project adopts a multi-layered research framework as outlined below.

The project employs a combination of analytical approaches, including pathway analysis, productivity analysis, institutional effect analysis, and macro-level analysis. In addition, exploratory methods—such as sequence analysis, event history analysis, and latent class analysis—are applied to fully leverage the richness of longitudinal career data. Data collection and database construction are carried out under the supervision of the principal investigator, with technical staff funded by the project. Based on prior experience, this work is supported by graduate research assistants with strong multilingual and quantitative skills, who manage data processing and coordinate closely with co-investigators and international collaborators. Through this integrated framework, the project aims to systematically uncover the mechanisms linking mobility, institutional contexts, and economic outcomes, and to provide a robust empirical and theoretical foundation for understanding high-skilled global mobility.